KINGSPORT, Tenn. (WJHL) — Northeast Tennessee’s population grew by more than 6,500 people from 2022 to 2023, marking a second straight year of strong growth after years of much slower increases.
The seven-county region’s population grew by 12,682 people from 2021 to 2023 according to annual U.S. Census Bureau estimates — more than the entire population added from 2010 to 2020. The 2023 numbers were released Wednesday.
They showed that unlike the previous decade, when growth was almost exclusively centered in Washington County, most of the other counties have also seen increases. And on the whole, Northeast Tennessee has grown as fast as the state since the 2020 census, in sharp contrast to the previous decade when the state’s population grew four times faster than the region’s.
“We’ve been discovered,” Don Fenley, a data analyst for the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors, told News Channel 11. “Part of it is cyclical; however, now that we have become known it’s going to continue.”
The region’s estimated population has reached 524,885, up more than 14,000 since the 2020 census. Most of that growth has been since 2021, as the region grew by 1.2% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023. Tennessee’s statewide growth was a hair higher (1.22%) in 2022, but was lower (1.1%) in 2023.
Nationally, growth has slowed since 2020 compared to the decade before, putting Northeast Tennessee in the unfamiliar territory of growing faster than the national average. During the last decade, the national population grew by an average of .71% a year, more than triple the .22% rate in Northeast Tennessee. Tennessee’s average was four times the region’s at .89%.
But since 2020, the U.S. average is half what it was, at only .35%, while Northeast Tennessee’s is more than quadruple the previous decade’s average: .95% a year. That’s nearly equal to Tennessee’s 1.04%.
Area leaders continue attributing the turnaround to the region’s quality of life and outdoor beauty combined with post-pandemic trends, including the rise in people working remotely and the availability of sufficient high-speed broadband internet. The lack of a state income or property tax is another attraction.
“Anecdotes are not data, but most of the people I’ve talked to have moved here based on lifestyle decisions,” Fenley said, adding that national real estate trends are also a factor.
“Basically, it’s what the Wall Street Journal in their emerging market index explains: this is a guide where housing is still a good investment and it’s a good place to live,” Fenley said.
Washington County continues to lead the way in raw numbers and percentage growth. It added 2,273 people in 2023, on top of 2,587 in 2022. That equates to 1.7% growth in 2023 and 1.9% in 2022.
That gave the state’s oldest county 38% of the area’s total population gain over two years. But that pales in comparison the 2010-2020 decade, when the 10,022 people Washington County added represented 93% of the region’s total growth and several counties lost population.
Those other six counties combined for population growth of just 800 people in that decade. In just the three years from 2020 to 2023, they’ve added 9,199.
In 2023, Greene County grew by almost 1,300 people to 72,577 for a 1.8% growth rate. Hawkins County’s addition of 697 people to 58,600 was a 1.2% clip. Carter County grew by 1%, adding 537 people to reach 57,022.
The region’s largest county, Sullivan, added 1,263 people to reach 162,135, for a 0.8% growth rate. In 2022 Sullivan County had added 1,650 people for 1% growth.
In Greeneville, readying for continued growth
In Greeneville, Town Manager Todd Smith says town leaders and their county counterparts are in high gear figuring out what infrastructure improvements will be necessary to prepare for continued growth.
Smith said the addition of 1,200-plus people came even before the construction of what is expected to be at least 600 new homes over the next half-decade.
Highway 11E, which traverses Greeneville from east to west, will need new signals, new additional turn lanes and possibly even a third lane in each direction, Smith said.
Fire and police coverage for a population that looks set to grow by 10% or more in a decade is another consideration, he said, along with making sure general water, electric and other infrastructure keeps pace.
“The biggest issue we’re dealing with last year and it’ll be with us for a while is how do we just keep up with the demand for service that this growth brings,” Smith said.
He said while a minority of people may see the influx as a negative, it beats the alternative of a declining tax base and struggles to “pay the bills” in the public sector.
“The influx of new people, I think, is an indicator that we’re doing something right in terms of cost of living and tax rate, in the level of service in our school system, in our crime rates. All of the above, the livability is what makes us attractive. And so I think the secret is getting out about places like Greeneville.”
